Greg Treverton, SMA Executive Advisor and former NIC Chair, meets the surveillance state during his recent visit to China for a conference
Pathways Forward for China and the United States
SMA Executive Advisor and former NIC Chair Greg Treverton summarizes some positive Sino-US discussions following last November’s APEC meeting.
Influencing Policy from Outside
SMA Executive Advisor and former NIC Chair Greg Treverton reflects on two times he sought to influence US foreign policy from the outside.
Intelligence Analysis Dos and Dont’s
SMA Executive Advisor and former Chair of the NIC, Greg Treverton, tell us his dos and don’ts when analyzing national intelligence.
The Global Sources of America’s Mess
Former NIC Chair Greg Treverton muses on whether the current US polarization and gridlock is self-inflicted or foreign influenced.
Reframing China
Former NIC Chair Greg Treverton examines the future of the Sino-American relationship: collaborative, competitive, and/or adversarial.
AI and Intelligence: ChatGPT Output
Former NIC Chair Greg Treverton asked ChatGPT to write how he would assess the impact of AI on the US IC. Here is the raw output from ChatGPT
The Promise and Peril of Artificial Intelligence (AI) for Intelligence Analysis
Former NIC Chair Greg Treverton asked ChatGPT to write how he would assess the impact of AI on the US IC. Here is his summary of the output
Thinking about Future World Order
Former NIC Chair Greg Treverton says that any confident predictions about China’s future, let alone Sino-American relationships, are suspect.
Dimensions of Future Intelligence
Former NIC Chair Greg Treverton presented the nine dimensions of challenges facing national intelligence in our August 3, 2023 Town Hall.
Ukraine and the Future of the Global (Dis)Order
After the Putin-Prigozhin clash, what is the future for Ukraine and the Global (Dis)order? Former NIC Chair Greg Treverton has thoughts…
The CIA Discovers Crowdsourcing
SMA Executive Advisor and former NIC Chair, Greg Treverton discusses how the CIA is at long last seeking to recruit spies by crowdsourcing.
Understanding China’s Gen Z
Former NIC Chair Greg Treverton ponders how China’s Generation Z may change after the end of China’s zero-Covid lockdowns.
The Endless War
SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton ponders whether we can or cannot afford to have Russia lose the war in Ukraine.
Memoirs of a Nuclear Age Baby
SMA Executive Advisor & Former NIC Chair Greg Treverton looks at the history of nuclear weapon stalemate and whether we are any safer today.
Thinking about the Third Nuclear Age
SMA Executive Advisor and former NIC Chair Greg Treverton realizes we have more questions than answers in this third nuclear age.
Government That Works
With Biden’s first two years in office, SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton shows Government can work, even amidst polarization and gridlock.
How the US Army Can Appeal to Gen Zers
A Fox News opinion piece by Greg Treverton and David Sprott shows how US Army Recruiting can appeal to Gen Zers
Reflections on the Nation-State
States are once more front and center in international politics, after 20 years of concern about non-state actors, especially terrorists
The Looming Chip War
Can the US win the looming semiconductor war against China? SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton offers his opinion…
Geopolitics and Climate in the Arctic
The conflict in Ukraine has halted cooperation through the Arctic Council. Let’s hope that, minus Russia, it restarts soon to combat warming.
Will the Ukraine War Upend the Emerging World (Dis)Order?
Does the Ukraine War threaten the emerging post-9/11 world order? SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton thinks it won’t end well for Russia
Denying Delegation…and Ending Government as We Have Known It
SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton discusses the Supreme Court’s recent decisions and how they may affect the future of US democracy.
Relearning Old Lessons in Ukraine
The tragic war in Ukraine underscored lessons we learned, or should have, long ago. SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton provides some examples…
The End of Russia as a Major Power?
Considering the implications of the Ukraine war, SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton believes this may be the end of Russia as a major power
Imagining the Endgame in Ukraine
Of all the possible endgames of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which is the best or least less bad? Greg Treverton discusses the options.
The Geopolitics of the War in Ukraine
SMA Executive Advisor and former National Intelligence Council Chair, Greg Treverton, tries to make sense of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Confessions of an Analyst
As an analyst with training in economics and a lifetime in politics, SMA Executive advisor Greg Treverton explains how he finds it hard to answer some contemporary socio-political questions.
Thinking about Artificial Intelligence (AI)
Artificial Intelligence (AI) will have an impact on virtually all jobs, but beyond that, SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton wonders what effect it will have on us as human beings.
Lessons in Thinking about the Future
SMA Executive Advisor and former NIC Chair Greg Treverton’s experience provides a framework for the what to dos and what not to does when making predictions about the future
China’s Government Capitalism
SMA Executive Advisor and former chair of the NIC, Greg Treverton asks why China’s President Xi is turning against the market economy, and why now?
Geopolitics and Decoupling from China
In his latest opinion piece, SMA Executive Advisor and former Chair of the National Intelligence Council, Greg Treverton discusses the concept of decoupling: reversing globalization, in particular with regard to China, reducing reliance on supply chains in China, and even “reshoring” them
A Revolution in Intelligence Affairs?
SMA Executive Advisor and former NIC Chair Greg Treverton asks whether the intelligence agencies are agile enough to herald a revolution in intelligence affairs.
The Simple Analytics—but Impossible Politics—of Immigration
Based on the facts of US immigration, SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton, former Chair of the National Intelligence Council, advocates for a way to be found to grant productive undocumented immigrants legal status.
The Russia Riddle
Greg Treverton, SMA Executive Advisor and former Chair of the National Intelligence Council, ponders whether the Biden administration is inclined to reach out to Russia and whether Putin is disposed to respond
Global Trends: Peering into the Future
SMA Executive Advisor and former National Intelligence Council (NIC) Chair Greg Treverton reviews the NIC’s latest Global Trends report which looks forward to 2040.
Anecdotes in Search of a (North) American Federation
For our 6 May Town Hall, with its Cinco de Mayo theme, SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton reminisced on his time in Mexico and Latin America, and asked if a North American Federation is a way forward.
Agenda for the Director of National Intelligence
SMA Executive Advisor and former NIC Chair Greg Treverton lays out the top of the agenda for the new Director of National Intelligence, Avril Haines: the intelligence community and open-source intelligence (OSINT)
Biden Will Test the Paradoxes of Modern Economics
What will be the effect of the Biden Administration on today’s post-modern economy, with its paradoxes of late last century fiscal and monetary verities? SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton looks at the issues.
Systems Thinking and National Intelligence
Could national intelligence analysis benefit from a systems thinking approach? Greg Treverton, SMA Executive Advisor and former chair of the National Intelligence Council, believes so.
The Solar Winds Wake-up Call
SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton makes the case that international rules of the road in the cyber world are long overdue, and necessary to limit attacks on national infrastructure
Thinking about—and Preparing for—Climate Engineering
In his latest opinion piece, SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton argues that ready or not, climate engineering (CE) is coming, and the United States should aim to be ready for it.
Building Back Better
SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton discusses the issues facing soon-to-be President Biden with enacting his campaign promise for America to “Build Back Better” after COVID-19
The Case for Policy Planning
Greg Treverton, SMA Advisor and former Chair of the U.S. National Intelligence Council, offers national security policy advice for the incoming Biden Administration.
A MAD Analogy for Mad Policy toward China
SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton looks at the United States’ current relationship with China. Are we looking at a new “cold war”?
The Future International Order?
In his latest opinion piece, SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton discusses whether, post-pandemic, the United States can remain the leader of the liberal international order.
10 Steps for US to Succeed in Complex Era of Great Power Competition
How can the United States succeed in today’s complex era of competition between the great powers? SMA Executive Advisor and former Undersecretary of Defense for Policy John Rood provides ten steps for success
Rethinking National Security
SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton advocates for rethinking U.S. national security in terms of health and biosecurity, not just a military approach.
Slow-Down at the Pentagon: What Would Baldwin Say Today (Redux)
Update! Nearly 2 years ago, we commented on how Hanson Baldwin would’ve been pleased that DoD Instruction 5000.2 is only 172 pages. We’re updating that article with the latest DoD acquisition news!
Writing When You Mean Business
“Bad writing is everywhere, and it is something up with which we should not put.” Greg Treverton, Ajay Patel, and Dick Eassom provide some tips for good business writing.
North Korea’s Nuclear Program: Learning from Sig Hecker
Will North Korea ever give up its nuclear weapons? SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton reports on the views of Sig Hecker, former director of the Los Alamos nuclear laboratory.
Reflections on the Future of the National Intelligence Council and U.S. Intelligence
SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton reflects on the past and future of the National Intelligence Council (NIC), which he led from 2014 to 2017.
Defense Spending and Deployments: A Little History
In 2019, the United States spent $686 billion on defense, more than the combined total of the next six countries in the world. SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton explains why.
The Future of Nuclear Non-Proliferation
The future of efforts to limit the danger of nuclear weapons in global affairs is clear. SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton observes that what to do about that future is not.
The Imperative of Diplomacy
A timely reminder from SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton that today’s young people will need to reshape both diplomacy and the institutions through which it is conducted.
The 900-Pound Gorilla: Secrecy
SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton examines the culture of secrecy at the clandestine services, and how that can unintentionally limit access to the intelligence gathered.
The Art of Briefing
You’re going to get interrupted during your important briefings, so think about how you’re going to answer awkward questions in advance!
Wisdom, Wit, and Diplomacy with Clark Clifford
SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton reminisces over his experience with Clark Clifford, the late Washington lawyer and Secretary of Defense.
Whither Nuclear Deterrence?
From the end of the Soviet Union until now, the sole purpose of nuclear weapons was to deter nuclear attacks. SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton fears that has changed.
Europe Coming Apart?
Will the European Union become less effective as an American partner? SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton looks at the EU’s financial problems, Muslim immigration, and political shifts
The Chinese Way of War…and Ours
SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton suggests that the US need to rethink its “way of war,” designed for a time that has passed, to counter the Chinese projection of power.
Telling Truth to Power
What’s the biggest challenge facing intelligence? Telling truth to power when the news is bad or the reality unwelcome.
North Korea a Year Later: Demonstrating Einstein?
Einstein supposedly said, “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.” SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton asks whether, one year on, the US is expecting a different result from North Korea.
When the Antagonist Doesn’t Play by the Same Playbook
Is “If They Can Do It, So Can We” an ethically acceptable playbook? SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton discusses the challenges to our intelligence tradecraft.
The Duty of Bureaucratic Disobedience
SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton reminds us that a little bureaucratic disobedience, i.e. doing nothing, is the best course of action