Can the US win the looming semiconductor war against China? SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton offers his opinion…
The conflict in Ukraine has halted cooperation through the Arctic Council. Let’s hope that, minus Russia, it restarts soon to combat warming.
Does the Ukraine War threaten the emerging post-9/11 world order? SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton thinks it won’t end well for Russia
SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton discusses the Supreme Court’s recent decisions and how they may affect the future of US democracy.
The tragic war in Ukraine underscored lessons we learned, or should have, long ago. SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton provides some examples…
Considering the implications of the Ukraine war, SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton believes this may be the end of Russia as a major power
Of all the possible endgames of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which is the best or least less bad? Greg Treverton discusses the options.
SMA Executive Advisor and former National Intelligence Council Chair, Greg Treverton, tries to make sense of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Ben Wachendorf, SMA Executive Advisor and retired U.S. Navy Admiral, explains his insights on the invasion of Ukraine.
As an analyst with training in economics and a lifetime in politics, SMA Executive advisor Greg Treverton explains how he finds it hard to answer some contemporary socio-political questions.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) will have an impact on virtually all jobs, but beyond that, SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton wonders what effect it will have on us as human beings.
SMA Executive Advisor and former NIC Chair Greg Treverton’s experience provides a framework for the what to dos and what not to does when making predictions about the future
SMA Executive Advisor and former chair of the NIC, Greg Treverton asks why China’s President Xi is turning against the market economy, and why now?
In his latest opinion piece, SMA Executive Advisor and former Chair of the National Intelligence Council, Greg Treverton discusses the concept of decoupling: reversing globalization, in particular with regard to China, reducing reliance on supply chains in China, and even “reshoring” them
SMA Executive Advisor and former NIC Chair Greg Treverton asks whether the intelligence agencies are agile enough to herald a revolution in intelligence affairs.
Based on the facts of US immigration, SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton, former Chair of the National Intelligence Council, advocates for a way to be found to grant productive undocumented immigrants legal status.
Greg Treverton, SMA Executive Advisor and former Chair of the National Intelligence Council, ponders whether the Biden administration is inclined to reach out to Russia and whether Putin is disposed to respond
SMA Executive Advisor and former National Intelligence Council (NIC) Chair Greg Treverton reviews the NIC’s latest Global Trends report which looks forward to 2040.
For our 6 May Town Hall, with its Cinco de Mayo theme, SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton reminisced on his time in Mexico and Latin America, and asked if a North American Federation is a way forward.
SMA Executive Advisor and former NIC Chair Greg Treverton lays out the top of the agenda for the new Director of National Intelligence, Avril Haines: the intelligence community and open-source intelligence (OSINT)
What will be the effect of the Biden Administration on today’s post-modern economy, with its paradoxes of late last century fiscal and monetary verities? SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton looks at the issues.
Could national intelligence analysis benefit from a systems thinking approach? Greg Treverton, SMA Executive Advisor and former chair of the National Intelligence Council, believes so.
SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton makes the case that international rules of the road in the cyber world are long overdue, and necessary to limit attacks on national infrastructure
In his latest opinion piece, SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton argues that ready or not, climate engineering (CE) is coming, and the United States should aim to be ready for it.
SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton discusses the issues facing soon-to-be President Biden with enacting his campaign promise for America to “Build Back Better” after COVID-19
Greg Treverton, SMA Advisor and former Chair of the U.S. National Intelligence Council, offers national security policy advice for the incoming Biden Administration.
SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton looks at the United States’ current relationship with China. Are we looking at a new “cold war”?
In his opinion piece, SMA Principal Associate Dan Harrison makes the case for future leaders for American Democracy, an institution worth voting for!
In his latest opinion piece, SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton discusses whether, post-pandemic, the United States can remain the leader of the liberal international order.
How can the United States succeed in today’s complex era of competition between the great powers? SMA Executive Advisor and former Undersecretary of Defense for Policy John Rood provides ten steps for success
SMA Executive Advisor and a former NATO Assistant Secretary General Peter Flory presents lessons learned and best practices to help NATO and EDA multinational armaments programs
Dave Patterson discusses the nature of bureaucracy in the US Department of Defense (DoD) acquisition process, and offers simple incentives to improve the results of that process.
SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton advocates for rethinking U.S. national security in terms of health and biosecurity, not just a military approach.
In their White Paper, James Farwell and Dave Patterson ask whether China is waging war against the U.S. and other nations with their response to COVID-19. If so, what should be the response?
SMA Executive Advisor Ben Wachendorf (RADM US Navy, Ret.) shows how a poor decision making process at the DoD is wasting billions of dollars of taxpayer’s money
Update! Nearly 2 years ago, we commented on how Hanson Baldwin would’ve been pleased that DoD Instruction 5000.2 is only 172 pages. We’re updating that article with the latest DoD acquisition news!
Dave Patterson details some efforts that the US DoD can make right now that would help small businesses (and large ones) in the aerospace & defense sector struggling under the COVID-19 pandemic
EVM is effective to manage programs because it integrates cost, schedule, technical, and risk attributes. Jacque Keats, SMA COO, asks why is it so unpopular.
Will North Korea ever give up its nuclear weapons? SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton reports on the views of Sig Hecker, former director of the Los Alamos nuclear laboratory.
SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton reflects on the past and future of the National Intelligence Council (NIC), which he led from 2014 to 2017.
In 2019, the United States spent $686 billion on defense, more than the combined total of the next six countries in the world. SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton explains why.
The future of efforts to limit the danger of nuclear weapons in global affairs is clear. SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton observes that what to do about that future is not.
A timely reminder from SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton that today’s young people will need to reshape both diplomacy and the institutions through which it is conducted.
From the end of the Soviet Union until now, the sole purpose of nuclear weapons was to deter nuclear attacks. SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton fears that has changed.
Will the European Union become less effective as an American partner? SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton looks at the EU’s financial problems, Muslim immigration, and political shifts
SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton suggests that the US need to rethink its “way of war,” designed for a time that has passed, to counter the Chinese projection of power.
Einstein supposedly said, “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.” SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton asks whether, one year on, the US is expecting a different result from North Korea.
Is “If They Can Do It, So Can We” an ethically acceptable playbook? SMA Executive Advisor Greg Treverton discusses the challenges to our intelligence tradecraft.
What challenges does the proposed U.S. Space Force face in ramping up and better coordinating military activities in space?
Although intended to curtail the ubiquity of nuclear weapons and delivery systems, of what broad strategic value is the New START agreement if China is not a signatory?
Now is the time, and New START is an occasion, for President Trump to establish a good relationship with President Putin and Russia.
Strategic deterrence is no longer just about nuclear war – we must consider cyber and space – and reflect on possible responses and their second-order effects.
If our world is less existentially dangerous than the high Cold War, it is scary in its shapelessness. It is a world that needs strategic analysis: what is important, what is less so?
Chinese President Xi Jinping is a puzzle. He understands our politics better than we understand his, but will he win the trade war with President Trump?
The strategic context for countering the proliferation of WMDs has changed dramatically without many observers quite noticing
President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty is not a disaster but is a mistake. Having a place for [the Russians and Chinese] to come [to discuss nuclear weapons], like the INF treaty, would not be a bad idea.
Treaties are tricky documents. They rely on three factors to be of value: trust among the participants, clearly verifiable terms, and verifiability that participants are holding to those terms…
The focus of recent concern is threats and attacks that seek to remain below the level of kinetic war. What challenges does this create for intelligence?
Because of its opposition to Iran’s aggression, Saudi Arabia remains an important tool in our overall strategy. It must remain so for the foreseeable future.
The bizarre, brutal killing of Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul is an occasion for rethinking U.S. policy toward the region.
Cyber is too important to be left to the technologists. It’s the great challenge of our times, and never before have such powerful public interests been almost entirely in private hands.
A dedicated, truly joint space command makes eminent sense. But it would be wise not to expect too much too soon. The 2019 NDAA calls for a combatant command, not a new military department.
What makes the establishment of the U.S. Space Force a near term priority is not organizational necessity, but a logical organizational response to a threat that is acknowledged, even by detractors.
In response to Dr. Greg Treverton’s critique of President Trump’s global strategy, or perceived lack thereof, Dave Patterson argues that he is actually doing a good job.
There is a certain logic to Trump’s strategy: major global institutions, like the EU & NATO, were created in a very different time, and the war on terrorism distracted from the return of geopolitics among major nations, so it is appropriate to ask of any action whether it is good for America.
SMA’s Point[Counterpoint] will feature two distinguished authors, Greg Treverton and Dave Patterson, who have previously written controversial SMA opinion papers. Together, they will help readers explore opposing viewpoints on a wide range of topics. Readers are invited to contribute their point of view or to suggest topics for the series.
Dave Patterson, SMA SVP for Strategic Business Opportunities responds to Greg Treverton’s “What Will Follow the First American Republic?” published on 29 August,
Time as any to reflect on the ending of the first American republic and to reflect on what may come next. Historians remind us that today looks a lot like the last third of the nineteenth century in its economic uncertainty, corruption, and government dysfunction.
While we can’t do without language when discussing international relations, that same language can limit and often distort our understanding. We need language but we are also its prisoners.
Topic number one at a recent Seoul gathering of North Korea experts and intelligence chiefs from a dozen countries was Kim Jong-un. What does he intend?
North Korea continues to present a special set of challenges for intelligence. Those challenges will only increase if recent summitry leads to serious conversation about denuclearization.
The Armed Force Procurement Regulations, less than 125 pages in 1947, was 1,200 pages and growing daily by 1965. It’s only 172 pages today. What would distinguish defense journalist Hanson Baldwin say about that?
Dr. Gregory F. Treverton admitted that while he used to be a non-believer in North Korean denuclearization, his views were now in flux
The goal of hybrid threats is to achieve outcomes without actual war. There are a number of ways we can respond…
Russia is a failing petro-autocracy. Virtually everything Vladimir Putin has done temporarily extends Russia’s corrupt government but hastens its inevitable decline.
Recently released government policy documents indicate that the Trump Administration’s national security priorities will benefit many SMA clients, especially in the aerospace and defense industry.
Greg Treverton, former Chair of the US National Intelligence Council, and SMA Executive Advisor, reflects on the last quarter century of NIC activities and assesses whether this organization continues to provide an actionable interpretation of the truth for senior US policy makers.
Improving the Defense Acquisition System: “The solution is to establish a source selection schedule and keep to it. Simple. Right?”
The “Pre-Decisional” draft Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) developed by the Trump Administration is thoughtful and addresses threats to the U.S. as they are.
By producing a National Security Strategy in his first year in office, President Trump has indicated that he views the NSS as an important security roadmap to keep Congress and the American people informed of his administration’s national security intentions.
Rivalry between the great powers is an unwelcome surprise when the US had laser focused on the non-state threat of terrorism. So: is the Cold War back?
Can we counter other nations’ abilities to find and release discrediting information, and use social media for propaganda to influence future US elections?
Is it time for everyone to receive a minimum income regardless of circumstance to offset the effects of the successful advance of technology?
Caspar Weinberger’s six principles for using military force are a useful lens on Trump’s newish path in Southwest Asia.
What are the future challenges facing national intelligence? What will be the effect of the Trump administration?
Dave Patterson, SMA SVP Strategic Sales, explains why we need Congress to pass appropriations bills on time.
Based on current trends, what does the future have in store for us five years from now, and 20 years from now, and how might this affect US global policy, especially with respect to poorer countries?
Will the Trump administration be a boom for the defense industry? Greg Treverton, Dave Patterson, and Ajay Patel revisit their earlier analysis.
Expert analysis on how the threats to our national security are changing, from nuclear and conventional war, to terrorism and cyberwar.
Will the Trump administration be a boom for the defense industry? Greg Treverton, Dave Patterson, and Ajay Patel advise caution.
Greg Treverton, SMA Executive Adviser, hypothesizes a future where the first nuclear weapon since 1945 will be used in a conflict and China and America will defuse the crisis.
Greg Treverton warns a preemptive strike on North Korea isn’t likely to take out their nuclear program or bring about regime change.
Watch Dave Patterson and Greg Treverton discuss their whitepaper on “Defense Planning for Threats, not Capability”
Greg Treverton and Dave Patterson argue that the US should base defense planning on threats, not capabilities.