Where and How Russia Will Strike Next

In January 2019, we prepared a white paper for the U.S. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy (USD(P)), which we feel we should share now given today’s events in Ukraine.

This white paper offers an evaluation of where we felt Russia was most likely to intervene next and how. We first considered the immanent characteristics of the Russian perspective, and ours as dueling narratives. Understanding the motivations underlying our current manifestation of the global U.S.-Russia rivalry was essential to the questions at hand. With this context, we presented an analysis of vulnerabilities as “what has to be true” for a specific country or region to be a likely target for Russian incursion. This approach exposed the assumptions and threshold conditions to answer the question of “where next”. Finally, we assessed for the most likely targets, the factors that could determine Russia’s success or failure with the incursion.

Download here: Where and How Russia Will Strike Next (199 downloads)

Published on February 25, 2022 by

Dick Eassom, CF APMP Fellow